Taiwan's real estate market bursts with "sky-high prices, flat transactions"; price negotiations start at 15%. Will it fall again next year?

Has the phenomenon of "high asking prices and low transaction volumes" appeared in Taiwan's housing market in 2025? Online discussions indicate that the average gap between asking prices and transaction prices exceeds 10%, with shrinking volumes, tightening policies, and a large influx of new home deliveries mixed together, leading buyers to enter a wait-and-see period, while sellers face the challenge of cash flow. (Background: Wall Street prophets warn: Nearly half of baby boomers are unable to afford "retirement costs," and the mortgage wave puts heavy pressure on the housing market) (Supplementary background: Housing market pressure forces builders! Documents reveal demands for building materials to "reduce prices by 5-10%", making real estate projects increasingly difficult) E-commerce founder Chen Chang posted a small story about real estate transactions in Taiwan. Recently, he bought a 33.8 million TWD Taichung elevator building, and after three months of negotiations, it was finally sold for 25.4 million TWD, a price difference of 8.4 million TWD. The community responded that this is a reflection of Taiwan's housing market in 2025! Sellers set exaggerated asking prices, but buyers are increasingly ruthless in bargaining, resulting in a significant price gap between face value and actual value. Chen Chang stated, "This is the current market reality. The asking price from homeowners is just for show, and the actual transaction price is often far lower. If you want to buy a house, I believe next year's prices will definitely be softer, prettier, and sweeter than the second half of this year. But you can start looking for houses now." Asking prices sky high, transaction prices hitting the ground. Observing the Taichung transaction case of e-commerce founder Chen Chang, the gap between asking prices and transaction prices averages 10% to 12%. The Deep Thinking AI report indicates that the bargaining space in Taipei is about 12.8%, New Taipei 11.5%, and Tainan 11.1%. The widening gap is not due to costs, but psychological reasons, as sellers continue to set prices at the highs of the past five years, while buyers, seeing rising interest rates, policy contractions, and global uncertainties, reclaim price control. Some buyers, feeling time pressure, think "if they can grab it, they will," but most self-occupiers can afford to wait, widening the gap in transaction prices. Is volume contraction stabilizing prices? The primary sign of cooling is the rapid shrinkage of transaction volumes. Monthly transactions for pre-sale houses plummeted from a peak of 16,000 units to 3,000 units, a decline of over 80%. Tracking Taiwan's real estate transactions from January to April 2025, the number of existing home sales has reached a low point since 2019. The number of transactions in national real estate agencies in April was 20% lower than in March, a decline of 30% to 40% compared to the same period last year. While transaction volumes are shrinking, the Xinyi housing price index continues to show year-on-year growth, but regional differences are becoming increasingly apparent, with Tainan dropping 8.49%, Hsinchu 6.29%, and Kaohsiung 5.06%. Builders are offering "free renovations, free appliances" or "low down payments" to give indirect discounts, avoiding price adjustments under actual price registrations, and substantial discounts from operators have begun. Three levels of pressure: policy, supply, and confidence. The pressure initially comes from policy measures to curb housing, as the seventh wave of credit controls, effective in September 2024, cancels the grace period for second home loans and reduces loan amounts, directly compressing the liquidity of investors. Most speculators have exited the market, causing the bargaining logic to return to self-occupiers' needs. Next is the supply side; from the second half of 2025 to early 2026, about 100,000 pre-sale homes will be delivered, along with existing new home inventories, creating substantial selling pressure, with some homeowners facing cash flow challenges after the TWD rapidly appreciates. Finally, on the confidence level of transactions, high net worth individuals are currently facing a slowing global economy and increasing geopolitical risks, with over 50% of potential real estate buyers choosing to wait until 2026, leading the main market into a "stalemate period". Buyers are slow to act, and sellers must be willing to compromise. What advice is there for those needing to engage in real estate transactions? For self-occupying buyers, now holding advantages in time and information, it is advisable to take advantage of the price correction period to look around and negotiate more, understanding the characteristics of various regions, and at least waiting for next year when the "correction ends." For sellers, cash flow and holding costs are the real issues. If a satisfactory offer is received, closing the deal early is better than prolonged negotiations; otherwise, when the wave of new deliveries officially emerges and actual price registrations continue to reveal lower prices, the bargaining space may become even larger. Buyers should control the rhythm, taking their time to look and negotiate is currently the better strategy. Sellers with turnover needs must weigh the time cost of closing the deal. Related reports decode Bitcoin's "unconventional big pump": When interest rates rise, the dollar depreciates, and trillion-dollar deficits collide. The U.S. doesn't have 200,000 BTC reserves? The Department of Justice reveals that there are fewer than 30,000 BTC left, far below market analysis. The moment of Bitcoin's shitcoin: Wall Street is quietly buying your retirement funds. "Taiwan's housing market explodes with 'sky-high asking prices and flat transaction volumes'; will bargaining begin at 15%?" This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.