Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: July futures are stuck at the central pivot, with bullish traders aiming for a breakout at $120,615.

The Bitcoin (BTC) contract for July 2025 is trapped between the pivot points of $123,875 and $115,340, with the center point at $120,615 rejecting any direction bias.

Key Points

Range Fluctuation: In the past week, the July futures have been fluctuating between the high pivot point of 123,875 and the low pivot point of 115,340.

Pivot Rejection: The price action is stagnating at the midpoint of the range at 120,615, indicating indecision from both bulls and bears.

The next guide, three key aspects will determine bias:

Bullish Trigger Factors: A clear breakout and hold above $126,015 (the upper channel trend line) could drive a retest of $123,875 and pave the way for the $129,000 - $132,000 area.

Bearish Guard: If it fails to recover to $120,615, it may fall back to $115,340, with the next support level around $112,000.

Consolidation Phase: Continued consolidation around $120,000 to $121,000 may lead to reduced volatility and form a narrow trading range by the end of the month.

(Source: Trading View)

BTC Price Analysis

1. The price structure remains unchanged

Since early May, the July contract for Bitcoin has been following an ascending channel (dashed trend line), confirming higher lows since the pivot point of $115,340. As long as the $115,340 level can be maintained, the overall bullish framework remains intact.

2. Volume Convergence

The volume/price curve shows that the value area is concentrated between $118,000 and $122,000, highlighting the significance of this region. The resistance level at $120,615 (where daily trading volume spikes) indicates that there is strong supply for a rebound above this level.

3. Bullish Scenario

Bullish Breakout: If the closing price decisively breaks above 120,615 USD (the upward trend line and recent volatility highs), the upper limit of the range will be invalidated, opening the door to the clusters at 129,000 and 132,000 USD.

Catalysts: Active on-chain liquidity, macro risk triggers (e.g., BTC ETF inflows), or a broader cryptocurrency rebound may drive this initiative.

4. Bearish Scenario

Downward risk: If BTC fails to recover $120,615, it is expected to face a new round of selling pressure, targeting $115,340. If it breaks below that, it will point to the support level of the ascending trend line near $112,000 and the low volatility forecast price (POC) of $108,000.

Negative factors: Profit taking, regulatory concerns, or a weak stock market may exacerbate selling pressure.

5. What is the next step?

Traders should pay attention to the sustained breakout and retest of 120,615 USD, or a drop below 120,615 USD. As the volatility narrows at the end of the month, position adjustments and stop-loss management around these pivot points will be crucial.