The price of HBAR surged after whales accumulated 60 million tokens.

The HBAR Token of Hedera has surged more than 8% today, but the overall trend is still not solid. Over the past week, HBAR has fallen nearly 10%, and the current price structure continues to raise many questions.

Hedera, a Layer-1 network aimed at enterprise applications, is showing clear bullish signals along with strong accumulation activity from whales.

The number of whale wallets continues to increase

In the past three weeks, the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million HBAR has continuously increased. Since the beginning of August, this wallet group has grown from 77 and 96 wallets to 79 and 102 wallets, equivalent to at least 62 million tokens being drawn from the circulating supply ( based on the minimum holding level ).

Whales are accumulating HBAR | Source: Hedera WatchData from CoinGlass also shows that the net cash flow on the exchange remained negative throughout August and the second half of July – often a sign of supply scarcity when tokens are withdrawn from the exchange to self-custody wallets. However, the price has not reacted too positively.

The weekly net flow of HBAR continues to be negative | Source: CoinglassThe reason may be that these withdrawal transactions are mainly carried out by whales. In other words, whales may be transferring HBAR from the exchange to cold wallets; there is still accumulation, but no new demand is entering the market. Without the participation of retail investors, prices are unlikely to continue to rise.

Retail investors and "smart money" remain cautious

The overall market sentiment has not changed yet. The Long/Short ratio shows that 50.97% of positions are currently participating in Short HBAR. This number is not too high but still reflects the trend of betting on the possibility of a price reversal downwards.

The Short trend of HBAR still dominates | Source: CoinglassIf there is no clear rotation of traders moving to Long or new buyers participating, HBAR continues to struggle to find momentum. Even with positive signals about supply, the sentiment remains quite pessimistic.

CMF divergence signals put pressure on the ascending triangle pattern

Technically, the price of HBAR is still holding above the upward trend line shown on the 2-day chart. However, cracks are starting to form. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures the momentum of money flow into the market, has created lower highs even as the price attempts to establish higher highs.

This divergence indicates that purchasing power is weakening, seen as a warning sign, consistent with the lack of participation from retail investors and smart money.

Technical analysis of HBAR | Source: TradingViewIf the price does not break through the resistance zone of $0.26, the pattern may lose momentum. A move below $0.23 will invalidate the current structure, confirming that smart money cannot drive HBAR to surge despite the accumulation led by whales.

However, if the price breaks above the upper trend line of the triangle pattern and quickly reclaims the $0.30 level, we can expect the bearish sentiment to completely vanish, opening up opportunities for a new growth phase.

Vincent