Market Analysis: Funding Heat Cools Down, High-Position Volatility Risk Increases

Recently, the market shows a coexistence of growth signals and a surge in funds, but structural risks are accumulating, and the market may enter a stage of high-level fluctuations.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Sentiment

Trump's easing of trade rhetoric and cooling inflation have boosted market sentiment, but the corporate debt frenzy, while supporting the stock market, has intensified the U.S. debt crisis. The high leverage of consumers and businesses, combined with the Federal Reserve's policy restrictions, is beginning to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow Analysis

The momentum of funds has明显减弱:

• The stablecoin issuance increased by 877 million this week, with an average daily issuance of 112 million, remaining at a low level.
• ETF inflows have continued to decline, with only 609 million inflowing this week.
• The premium of over-the-counter stablecoins continues to decline.

These indicators collectively reflect the insufficient buying power.

Main Cryptocurrency Market Structure

Bitcoin ( BTC ):

• The technical aspect is in a volatile upward range.
• Chips enhanced over $100,000

Ethereum ( ETH ):

• Price movement weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC ratio breaks down
• The increase in active addresses on the chain may indicate that the phase of building a bottom is complete.

The Impact of ADP Employment Data on BTC Price

Statistics show that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the short-term probability of BTC rising increases significantly:

• In 28 ADP data releases, 16 exceeded expectations by more than +10%.
• Among them, 15 times ( about 94% ) BTC increased within 7 days, with an average increase of +6.8%.

However, regression analysis shows that the price elasticity of BTC with respect to a single macroeconomic indicator is relatively limited. ADP can be seen as an auxiliary sentiment indicator, but its individual impact is insufficient to determine the direction of BTC.

On-chain Data Analysis

According to URPD data, the chip share of BTC in the range of $101,800 - $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, forming strong support. However, in the current context of slowing capital inflows, this area may also become a short-term resistance zone.

Changes in the structure of holding addresses reflect:

• Large address (10k-100k BTC ) high position reduction, slight补回 during the pullback.
• Medium-sized address (1k-10k BTC) shows clear signs of chasing highs and cutting losses.
• Small address (100-1k BTC ) steadily increasing holdings

Overall, the attitude of large funds is becoming cautious, while small and medium-sized funds constitute the main support of the current price range.

Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations

The market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. It is recommended to focus on defense.

• Pay attention to BTC's $100,000 support and ETH's pullback rhythm.
• Appropriately reduce positions in high Beta altcoins
• Closely monitor changes in ETF fund flows, stablecoin issuance, and other indicators.

If there are no significant positive stimuli, the market may fluctuate and consolidate near recent highs, and may even face the risk of technical correction. Investors should remain vigilant and manage risks.