📊 This Week’s Focus: CPI Data + ETF Inflows — A Potential Market Turning Point

1️⃣ Macro Backdrop

US CPI drops this week — market expects +2.8% YoY.
→ If CPI comes in lower than expected, odds of a September rate cut could spike (already at 86%), bullish for risk assets.

Trump extended China tariffs by 90 days. BTC spiked to $122K on the news before pulling back — showing short-term sentiment swings on headlines.

Institutional flows remain strong: Spot ETH ETFs saw $1.02B in net inflows in a single day (new record), with cumulative inflows now over $10.8B.

2️⃣ Technical & Structure Watch

$BTC : Key support at $118.5K–$119K (CME gap zone). Resistance at $122K–$123K (prior high).

$ETH : Broke the crucial $4,200–$4,300 zone; hold above = target $4,500.

$SOL : Back above $200 with rising volume — clear signs of capital rotation back into Layer1 plays.

$DOGE : Bounced off long-term uptrend line; similar to 2024 setup, still has ~60% upside potential.

3️⃣ Weekly Playbook (Spot Swing)

Conservative Approach:

Trim 20–30% exposure before CPI to avoid whipsaw on release.

Hold BTC above $118.5K, ETH above $4,200.

Keep only core positions in alts (SOL/DOGE), add only after post-CPI confirmation.

Aggressive Approach:

Accumulate BTC in $118.5K–$119K zone; if CPI < expected, add on breakout.

Buy ETH dips into $4,250–$4,300, target $4,500.

Chase SOL above $210 with volume; watch DOGE for ETF-related catalysts.

🎯 Key Take:
ETH is the main driver of this leg. Alt season depends on whether BTC.D breaks below 60%. CPI is the trigger this week —

Below expectations → full risk-on mode.
Above expectations → short-term risk-off.
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📊 This week's focus: CPI data + ETF fund influx, the market may迎新一波轉折.

1️⃣ Macroeconomic Background

The US CPI will be released this week, with the market expecting an annual growth rate of 2.8%. Lower than expected = September rate cut probability skyrockets (has reached a forecast of 86%), which is favorable for risk assets.

Trump extends tariffs on China for 90 days, BTC retraced after breaking 122,000 USD on the same day, indicating that news impacts short-term sentiment.

Institutional funds continue to pour in: Spot ETH ETF daily net inflow breaks 1.02 billion USD for the first time, with a cumulative inflow exceeding 10.8 billion USD.

2️⃣ Technical and Structural Observations

$BTC: Key support at 118,500–119,000 (CME gap area), resistance at 122,000–123,000 (previous highs).

$ETH: Breaking through the key range of 4,200–4,300. If it stabilizes above, 4,500 is the first target.

$SOL: Trading volume increased after returning to $200, with funds clearly flowing back into Layer 1 hotspots.

$DOGE: Bouncing along the long-term upward trend line, referencing a similar trend in 2024, still has a potential 60% upside.

3️⃣ This Week's Trading Strategy (Spot Swing)

Conservatives:

Reduce positions by 20-30% before CPI announcement to avoid momentary volatility during data release.

BTC holds at 118,500, continue to hold; ETH holds at 4,200, continue to keep.

Only keep core positions in altcoins like SOL and DOGE, waiting for data to add positions.

Activists:

BTC 118,500–119,000 accumulate in batches, increase positions if CPI is lower than expected.

ETH 4,250–4,300 pullback is a buying opportunity, target at 4,500

SOL breaks 210 with volume, can be chased; DOGE pay attention to ETF related catalysts to accelerate the market.

🎯 Viewpoint:
ETH has become the core driving force of the current market cycle, and the altcoin season depends on whether BTC.D can fall below 60%. CPI is the trigger for this week—below expectations = full risk-taking, above expectations = short-term retreat.