Gold "Long Positions" Report: Gold prices may reach 8900 USD by the end of 2030

As the global political and economic order continues to be in turmoil, gold is returning to the center stage of the capital market. The latest annual report from the gold investment company Incrementum points out that the world is currently undergoing a new round of financial restructuring, and gold, as a currency asset with no counterparty risk and no inflation, is becoming increasingly significant strategically. From the deindustrialization and uncontrollable fiscal deficits in the United States, to the rise of non-state credit assets such as Bitcoin, and the large-scale gold purchases by central banks, these trends collectively form the backdrop of the "golden long positions" pattern.

Gold Fever: Returning from the Margins to the Mainstream

The report compares the current gold bull market to the opposite of the movie "The Big Short": against the backdrop of the restructuring of the global financial and monetary system, strategically investing in gold will yield significant returns. For a long time, gold has been marginalized in the Western financial system, seen as lacking returns and viewed as an outdated safe-haven tool. However, in recent years, the situation has started to change.

According to Dow theory, a complete bull market can be divided into three phases: accumulation phase, public participation phase, and mania phase. Currently, gold is in the second phase, namely the "public participation phase". Typical characteristics of this phase include:

• Media reports are becoming increasingly optimistic
• Speculative interest and trading volume increased
• New financial products are being launched
• Analysts raise price targets

In the past five years, global gold prices have risen by 92%, while the actual purchasing power of the dollar against gold has decreased by nearly 50%. Data shows that last year gold set 43 historical highs in dollar terms, second only to the 57 in 1979, and as of April 30 this year, it has set 22 new highs. Although it has broken through the $3000 mark, this round of increase is still moderate compared to historical bull markets.

Key Factors Influencing Gold

Geopolitical Restructuring

The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing rapid restructuring, which is favorable for gold. Gold has three major advantages as the anchor of the new monetary order:

• Gold is neutral and does not belong to any country or political party.
• Gold has no counterparty risk and is pure property.
• Gold has high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume exceeding $229 billion in 2024.

The impact of Trump's policies

After Trump returned to the White House, he initiated a profound restructuring of the American economy and the global economy. His policy directions include:

1. Address the issue of excessive government debt
2. Trade Policy Reform
3. Adjustment of Dollar Policy

These policies could lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, or even a recession. If this trend continues, the Federal Reserve will face greater pressure to loosen monetary policy more aggressively than currently priced in.

central bank demand

Central bank demand is the key pillar of the "long positions". Since 2009, central banks have been net buyers in the gold market, and this trend has significantly accelerated since February 2022 when Russia's currency reserves were frozen. For three consecutive years, central banks have increased their gold reserves by over 1,000 tons.

Continued depreciation of fiat currency

The report emphasizes the monetary function of gold: unlike fiat currency, the supply of gold cannot be arbitrarily expanded. The growth of the money supply is a key long-term driving factor for gold prices. In G20 countries, the average annual growth rate of M2 is 7.4%.

Gold price prediction

The report presents the Incrementum gold price model forecast proposed in 2020:

• Basic scenario: By the end of 2030, the gold price is approximately $4,800.
• Inflation scenario: By the end of 2030, the price of gold is approximately $8,900

Currently, the price of gold has exceeded the mid-term target of $2,942 for the baseline scenario by the end of 2025. The report suggests that by the end of this decade, the price of gold is likely to be between two scenarios, depending on the level of inflation over the next five years.

Bitcoin and Gold

The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of the market value of gold. Assuming a conservative gold price target of around $4,800, the price of Bitcoin would need to rise to approximately $900,000 to achieve 50% of gold's market value.

Conclusion

The report believes that the gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-stage of public participation. Gold is transitioning from being seen as an outdated relic to a key asset in investment portfolios, providing both defensive stability and offensive potential.

The long-term rise of gold is based on several mutually reinforcing pillars:

• Restructuring of the global financial and monetary system
• The inflation tendency of the government and central bank
• The emergence of regional economies with affinity for gold
• Capital transfer from US assets
• Expected excess returns of "performance gold"

As traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S. or German government bonds lose trust and weaken their stability function, gold is re-emerging as the core of long-term investment strategies. During times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has once again proven itself to be a reliable safe-haven asset.